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October 2021 QUARTERLY OUTLOOK
VanEck ViewPointTM Be on guard
The pace of economic growth is diverging. Some emerging markets are tightening, Europe and the US are heading toward tapering, growth in Australia has all but faltered and China has its own set of problems.
June 2021
A pinch of optimism
A review of the events of the past couple of years reads like the plagues in the Book of Exodus. So how has the market responded to any one of these potentially devastating events? With optimism.
March 2021
The rhyme of history
Markets appear to have priced in a return to ‘normal’. With an unwavering commitment by central banks to not fight inflation. The environment is being called reflationary. Reflation has happened before.
DECEMBER 2020
A world recalibrated
While e-commerce penetration has quantum leaped the last few months we observe a potential regime change may be at hand. For the last few years across developed markets, growth stocks have outperformed value by a long way. This may be coming to an end.
OCTOBER 2020
Resilience and patience
The global economy is experiencing an uneven and gradual healing with skews to the downside. The pace of the recovery will affect countries, industries and companies very differently.
JUNE 2020
Voting Machines and Weighing Machines
Sir John Templeton once said “the four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different”. Yet we think he would agree with us because this time is different. There is no precedent.
APRIL 2020
Black Swan time
It’s the definition of Black Swans that you don’t see them coming. Two have sailed into view: COVID-19 and an oil shock. In some ways they offset, in others they amplify. And it’s early days to have clarity on how big or how long-lasting their impact will be.
DECEMBER 2019
On the merry-go-round
This time a year ago, the trade war was going to be quick and “easy to win.” Now it’s clear that it will be an ongoing series of, often escalating, skirmishes, punctuated by face saving “deals” and “phases”.
OCTOBER 2019
The Wall of “No Worries”!
Seasoned investors talk of markets “climbing the wall of worry.” That is, far from potential problems pushing markets down, fear is leaving players under-invested and markets despite the uncertainty trend upwards. You could say that in 2019 the market has been vulnerable to relief rallies!